A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
